running?

This is a quote from Governor Bush, who is (not) running for president.

“So, irrespective of the Supreme Court ruling because they are going to decide whatever they decide – I don’t know what they are going to do – we need to be stalwart supporters of traditional marriage,” said Bush, who converted to Catholicism 20 years ago.
Newsweek Online at: http://www.newsweek.com/jeb-bush-says-he-opposes-gay-marriage-333096, May 19.2015

In the odd game we call, with more humor than analysis, "The American Electoral System," announcing that one is thinking about running, or actually running has become a matter of tactics. There are fund-raising, contributor identification, and spending limit laws that apply differently depending on how status is defined.

So, for instance, Mr. Bush is nominally not running, but thinking about it a bit. That means he or friendly PAC's are able to solicit, receive and spend money with virtually no limits. He can make speaches, but has to be carefull not to say he is a candidate. When he starts officially thinking about running, that is when he forms an, "exploratory committee," some rules begin to apply. When he declares he is running, which we all know he will, more stringent rules limit funding.

Mr. Bush's problem is that the Republicans are internally divided between "neo-cons;" religious and tea-party (self-styled) conservatives; and what the media call, mainstream or business conservatives. The money is in the first and third groups, but the votes, especially in primaries are religious conservatives. So, making himself at least marginally acceptable to the so-callled, "Christian Right" is imperative. One cannot spend all that lovely Koch money if someone else is nominated.

Mr.Bush's problem is complicated by his Roman Catholic faith. The "Christian Right" (which is neither) does not like Catholics. There are any number of historical reasons for this, but they can be simplified by observing that the majority of the so-called Christian Right is located in the States that once formed the Confederacy.

It is generally true that one can get the most attention by being against someone. The problem for Mr. Bush and the other would-be Republican nominees is it is increasingly hard to find someone to be against. They are all against liberals, but that is the problem. There is nothing to distinguish them from one another. Being against women has worked rather poorly of late, and no one wants to admit being against blacks or Jews.

If there were no gays or lesbians in America, the Republicans would have to import them. They at least, among the religious loony-toon voters, are a group they think it OK to be against. Or if not against, at least they can claim those people are persecuting them, never mind how.

So, Mr. Bush announces the Constitution does not protect lesbian or gay marriages. We shall see what the Court says about that soon. I suspect Mr. Bush may be unhappy, noisily, when the Court rules. In fact, I think he is looking forward to being disappointed. Until the general election, being a homophobe plays well the electorate he cares about.

The quote is interesting because it is so careful. This is a man who thinks he will be the nominee. He does not say ignore the courts. He does not say break the laws. After all, if the Court finds a Constitutional protection for Lesbian and gay marriages, those who do not agree will still have a right to disagree.

For a man not running, he is speaking like a candidate. My mind, indeed my entire being shudders.